America's Hiring Problem: The Impact of Optimism on Workforce Retention

Gallup and the Rippel Foundation released Thriving Together in America on October 5, 2026. Through the third quarter of 2026, just 48.1% of U.S. adults were thriving, down from 59.2% in June 2021. This decline is close to the lows recorded during the Great Recession and the early weeks of COVID-19.

For talent leaders, the key takeaway is clear: the workforce we recruit and retain is losing optimism about its future. We spent 26 years in uniform and the years since building hiring pipelines. This signal may tell employers more about what's coming than this month's jobs report.

The Decline of Optimism Among Young Adults

In 2010, adults aged 18 to 29 had the highest thriving rate of any age group at 64%. Today, they have the lowest rate at 44%. Adults aged 30 to 44 sit at 45%. These two brackets contain much of the entry-level and mid-career talent that companies compete for. They also include a significant share of the roughly 200,000 service members who transition out of the military each year.

The sharper signal is how Americans perceive their future. In 2025, only 59.2% rated their life five years from now at an 8 or higher. This is the lowest level since Gallup began measuring it in 2008. While ratings of current life have declined, they haven't done so as sharply. Americans are losing confidence that tomorrow will be better, faster than they're losing satisfaction with today.

The Connection Between Leadership and Wellbeing

Gallup identifies several deteriorating measures, two of which caught our attention. First, freedom from money worries in the previous week has declined. Second, agreement that a leader in someone's life creates enthusiasm for the future has also dropped. One measure is largely about economic security, while the other pertains to leadership. Employers don't control all of either one, but they have meaningful influence over both.

The report cites meta-analyses connecting life evaluation with workplace outcomes. Life evaluation had a .30 relationship with organizational commitment and a -.27 relationship with turnover intention. Treat those as a tilt in the odds. When hiring thousands of people, small changes in those odds can become expensive.

Candidates Will Buy Trajectory

Candidates still ask what a job pays. However, more of them now inquire about where it leads. Employers that can show a credible pay progression and promotion path will have an advantage over those selling a job description and hoping candidates imagine the rest.

Put the progression in writing. Show us what competent looks like at 90 days and at one year, and outline what the next role pays.

The Role of Frontline Managers in Retention

If leadership that creates enthusiasm for the future matters to wellbeing, the workplace is one area where employers can take action. The first-line supervisor plays a crucial role. This is where most employees experience "the company."

Companies that deliberately train frontline leaders and hold them accountable for developing and retaining people should outperform those that promote the best technician and hope leadership happens.

Addressing First-Year Attrition

When fewer than half of American adults are thriving, employers should assume that some uncertainty walks through the door with every new-hire class. Don't wait for the exit interview to find it. Ask at 90 days and again at six months:

Do you know what success looks like here?

Do you see a future here?

Then, take action based on the answers.

The Cost of Underemployment

The report revisits Carol Graham's research on "frustrated achievers": people making objective progress whose satisfaction declines because the trajectory they expected isn't materializing. We've seen this repeatedly with veterans.

For example, hire a former E-6 who led people and operations into a role two levels below their capability due to a lack of clear translation of their military title. The company may congratulate itself for hiring a veteran but later wonders why that veteran leaves within two years.

That may have been a job-matching problem from day one.

Wisconsin's Approach to Workforce Wellbeing

The Northeast Wisconsin Data Exchange has conducted multiple waves of regional wellbeing surveys across the Fox Valley. Public health departments and health systems now incorporate those results into their planning.

Coalitions in the area organize around the vital conditions framework, which includes housing, transportation, belonging, and meaningful work and wealth. Employers should pay attention to the same data. Each of those conditions is a labor-market variable too.

SkillBridge: An Opportunity for Employers

SkillBridge offers employers an unusual opportunity. A transitioning service member can spend part of the final 180 days of military service training with an approved civilian employer, subject to military approval. This allows the service member to experience the company before separating. The employer can evaluate the person before making a permanent hiring decision.

Moreover, the service member makes that transition while still receiving military pay and benefits. This reduces one major source of transition risk while giving the employer something equally important: time to show the candidate where the opportunity leads.

Employers who convert SkillBridge participants into real careers gain more from it than from another recruiting campaign. The fall application enrollment window runs from October 1 to December 1. If you're a Wisconsin employer considering SkillBridge, we're glad to walk you through the process.

A Key Exercise for Talent Leaders

Whether you use SkillBridge or not, we recommend one exercise for every talent and HR leader this week.

Pull your last 12 months of first-year exits. Separate the people who left primarily for:

• more money

• a better role

• greater advancement

• a better manager

• schedule or location

• something else

  
  

Then, analyze the first three together. This will reveal something your turnover rate doesn't: whether people are leaving for a better offer or because they can't see a future inside your company.

By understanding these dynamics, we can better address the challenges of hiring and retention in our organizations.